That’s the outlook offered by the Moscow-based investment bank Troika Dialog in a recent research note.

The way Troika sees it, Russia has four key growth drivers at work for investors – low penetration in the domestic sectors, mining growth, fiscal reforms and market consolidation that allows companies to get bigger and benefit from scale.

By sector, publicly-traded retail companies are seen as most poised for strong growth through 2015 – Troika predicts 25 percent annual growth for the five years. Rationale: organized retail only accounts for 40 percent of sales, compared to more than 90 percent for Europe as a whole.

The same low-penetration story is seen in broadband (6 percent nationwide), banking (few people have credit cards or bank loans), automotive (44 cars per 100 households, well less than half of Germany’s rate), pharmaceuticals (per-capita spending only 25 percent of Europe’s rate) and more.

Rising commodity prices, which in the past decade had been Russia’s biggest growth driver, are not seen as much of a factor in the next five years. Instead, mining sector growth is expected to be more a story of production growth.

Tim Steinle recently took a research trip to the Krasnodar region of Russia to discover more information about the growing retail sector. Watch what Tim had to say following his trip.

Written by Frank Holmes

What’s Driving Russia? is an article from:

Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 8.0.

Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

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December silver futures closed up 8.6 cents at $20.00 an ounce yesterday. Prices closed near mid-range yesterday and hit another fresh two-year high. The key “outside markets” were in a bullish posture for silver yesterday, as the U.S. dollar index was weaker, while crude oil and U.S. stock index prices were firmer. Silver bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $18.86. Bulls’ next upside price objective is producing a close above solid technical resistance at $21.00 an ounce. First resistance is seen at yesterday’s high of $20.18 and then at $20.25. Next support is seen at yesterday’s low of $19.82 and then at this week’s low of $19.585.

Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 8.0.

December N.Y. copper closed up 235 points at 349.40 cents yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday. The key “outside markets” were in a bullish posture for copper yesterday, as the U.S. dollar index was weaker, while crude oil and U.S. stock index prices were firmer. The bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 360.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 330.00 cents. First resistance is seen at yesterday’s high of 351.50 cents and then at this week’s high of 353.45 cents. First support is seen at 347.50 cents and then at yesterday’s low of 345.10 cents.

Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 7.0. 

Read More at TraderPlanet.com »

Metals Commentary – 09/09/10 is an article from:

JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

It’s still early September, but so far the stock
market has held up fairly well in what is
historically a poor-performing month for the stock indexes. My bias is that if
the stock indexes can hold up well through next
week, then they will also likely hold up fairly
well during following next six weeks. Any time the
majority of traders and investors expect a market
to perform a certain way during a certain
timeframe, it’s a decent bet it won’t happen.–Jim.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators are
bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at this week’s high of 1,107.10
and then at the August high of 1,127.50. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at the
overnight low of 1,087.50 and then at 1,075.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-
term oscillators are
neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at Wednesday’s high of
1,888.00 and then at 1,900.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at the overnight low of
1,872.75 and then at Wednesday’s low of 1,852.25.
Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,325 and then more stops just below
support at 10,300. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 10,405 and then at
last week’s high of 10,440. Shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators
are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages
are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies
at 132 even and then at the overnight high of 132
18/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 131
16/32 and then at 131 even. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

DECEMBER U.S. T-Bonds

135 19/32–lifetime high
135 19/32–Previous Month’s high set
134 –second pivot point resistance
133 12/32–previous day’s high
133 5/32–9-day moving average
133 4/32–first pivot point resistance
132 27/32–18-day moving average
132 15/32–pivot point
132 9/32–4-day moving average
132 7/32–previous day’s close
131 27/32–previous day’s low
131 19/32–first pivot point support
130 30/32–second pivot point support
126 7/32–previous month’s low
124 16/32–100-day moving average
112 –lifetime low

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators
are neutral early today.
Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at 124.16.0 and then at the
overnight high of 124.23.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders
are likely located just below support at 124.00.0
and then at 123.20.5. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.5

DECEMBER U.S. T-Notes

126 2/32–lifetime high
126 2/32–previous month’s high
125 13/32–second pivot point resistance
125 3/32–previous day’s high
124 29/32–first pivot point resistance
124 29/32–18-day moving average
124 26/32–9-day moving average
124 20/32–4-day moving average
124 20/32–pivot point
124 14/32–previous day’s close
124 10/32–previous day’s low
124 4/32–first pivot point support
123 27/32–second pivot point support
122 16/32–previous month’s low
120 13/32–100-day moving average
111 9/32–lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is near steady in
early trading. Prices have been trading sideways
for the past four weeks. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
this week’s high of 83.29 and then at 83.53.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low
of 82.82 and then at this week’s low of 82.60.
Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today.
Trading has turned choppy recently. In October
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $75.58 and then at $76.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at the
overnight low of $74.60 and then at $74.00.
Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were lower in overnight trading, on a
profit-taking pullback from recent gains. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Trading may be quieter today, ahead of
Friday morning’s USDA supply and demand and crop
production report.

Read More at TraderPlanet.com »

Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Blog–Thursday is an article from:

The argument begins with a bit of a mental leap as we compare the share price of Coke to the CRB Index and Cisco to gold futures prices.

Below is a comparison between Cisco and Coca Cola from 1997 into 2001. The view is that the Nasdaq’s ‘bubble’ into 2000 was the tail end of a much larger trend that involved ‘large cap’ U.S. equities. The trend narrowed in 1998 as one sector after another lost momentum leading into a concentrated and highly focused trend that drove the Nasdaq to its final peak in 2000.

Our point is that Coke was an integral part of the theme through the early stages but as it began to falter after reaching unsustainable levels of valuation the trend narrowed. Coke peaked in 1998 leading to a rotation of money into the tech sector which, in turn, created the Nasdaq’s ‘bubble’.

If the Nasdaq was the tail wagged by the ‘large cap U.S.’ stock markets trend then we will argue that gold is the trailing edge of the theme that has dominated the markets over much of the last decade- commodity prices.

Next is a chart comparison between gold futures and the CRB Index. This chart runs from 2007 to the present day. We have lined up this comparison so that it covers the same basic time period- ten years later- as the Coke/Cisco chart.

Coke peaked in 1998. The CRB Index peaked in 2008. The Nasdaq continued to rise into 2000 and in the current situation we see gold prices pushing to new highs into 2010.

While it may or may not be fair to use Cisco as a surrogate for the Nasdaq in 2000 the argument is that gold price strength is an extension of a much larger trend that began to lose momentum more than two years ago. If history were to repeat gold futures would likely  give back a substantial portion of the price gain garnered since the last test of the 700 level in late 2008.

Equity/Bond Markets

Now… this is where things get somewhat interesting. Would a decline in gold prices require an even more serious decline in general commodity prices? Could a decline in gold prices actually go with a rise in the CRB Index? We think the latter may be the more likely option.

Below is the comparison between Cisco and Coke from the end of 1999 into the start of 2001. In essence we are looking at what happened to Coke when Cisco’s share price finally started to weaken in 2000.

The chart shows that Coke bottomed in March of 2000 at the peak for Cisco. Once the tech trend started to crack the offset was a rise in those sectors that had been under pressure as a result of rising interest rates.

Further below we feature gold futures and the CRB Index from December of 2009 to the present day.

If our thesis is correct then weakness in gold should go directly with strength in the CRB Index. In 2000 the peak for the Nasdaq marked the end of UPWARD pressure on credit costs. Our thought is that in 2010 the peak for gold will mark the end of DOWNWARD pressure on credit costs.

The charts suggest something rather intriguing. It is possible that a trend change began roughly three months ago when gold futures made a hard run down towards the 200-day e.m.a. line in a manner similar to Cisco between March and May of 2000. The twist, of course, is that gold prices have risen back to the highs. Our thought here is that something like the share price of Carnival should be acting as an offset to gold prices. As CCL swings back towards the early August highs a case can be made that gold prices simply haven’t received the memo that a bear market began back in June.

Read More at TraderPlanet.com »

Chart Presentation: Gold Bubble is an article from:

The announcement couldn’t come at a better time. Data released last week shows that construction spending fell to a 10-year low in July and the country lost 54,000 jobs in August.

Infrastructure investment can improve both these figures. According to federal figures, every $1 billion invested in infrastructure can create about 35,000 jobs and fuel $6.2 billion in economic activity.

When President Obama took office, one of his first promises was to put Americans to work by repairing crumbling infrastructure.

Roughly $230 billion worth of his economic stimulus plan was allocated to infrastructure, but only about $66 billion had been paid out by mid-August, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Where is the money going? California, hard hit by the recession, currently has 8,000 approved projects valued at $25 billion, while Texas has 3,000 projects ($14.6 billion) and New York has 3,500 projects ($12.7 billion). In all, there are nearly 80,000 infrastructure stimulus projects approved or under way across the U.S., according to Recovery.org.

Measuring the impact of another $50 billion will take some time as the President’s plan is intended to take six years. However, with our nation’s infrastructure investment needs estimated to be over $2 trillion, every little bit counts.

Written by Frank Holmes

Another Shot at Infrastructure is an article from: