Written by Anthony Darvall

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was slightly weaker on the back of small gains in US stocks and increasing demand for higher yielding assets. Weekly Jobless Claims beat expectations falling to 451k vs. 478k. July’s Trade Balance also improved to -$42.8bn vs. -$49.9bn previously. In US stocks, DJIA +28 points closing at 10415, S&P +5 points closing at 1104 and NASDAQ +7 points closing at 2235.

The Euro (EUR) was up and down as the market trading in a range around the 1.2700 level. EUR/JPY continued to provide direction the popular cross rallying on good US jobs data. August German CPI was confirmed at 1.0% y/y. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2663 and a high of 1.2768 before closing at 1.2700.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the market is failing to respond to Japanese Government Officials concerns on the strength of the Yen and this is encouraging the market to test new lows. Better US data however did prompt some profit taking and the pair finished near highs at Y84. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 83.48 and a high of 84.05 before closing the day around 83.90 in the New York session. Update Chinese Trade Balance at 20bn vs. 27.1bn previously.

The Sterling (GBP) continued to weaken with the market selling rallies. The BOE failed to impact holding at 1.0% and keeping the QE steady ay 200bn. The market did sell however on weak July Trade Balance figures at -8.7bn. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5374 and a high of 1.5481 before closing the day at 1.5430 in the New York session. Looking ahead, August PPI is forecast at 0.1% vs. 0.2%.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was the strongest currency in the market rallying on the back of very strong Jobs numbers in August. Employment Change was +30k and the Unemployment Rate dropped to 5.1% vs. 5.2% previously. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9170 and a high of 0.9280 before closing the US session at 0.9230.

Oil & Gold (XAU) fell back on profit taking after failing at the $1260 level. Overall trading with a low of USD$1242 and high of USD $1259 before ending the New York session at USD$1245 an ounce. Oil failed to hold gains above $75 a barrel falling heavily in New York. WTI Oil Closed -$0.20 at $74.60 a barrel.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro – 1.2680

Initial support at 1.2588 (Aug 24 low) followed by 1.2434 (61.8% retrace of 1.1877-1.3334). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2933 (Aug 12 low) followed by 1.3000 (Big figure Resistance)

Yen – 84.10

Initial support is located at 83.35 (Sept 8 low) followed by 81.85 (May 1995 low). Initial resistance is now at 85.23 (Sept 3 high) followed by 86.36 (Aug 13 high).

Pound – 1.5410

Initial support at 1.5297 (Sept 7 low) followed by 1.5125 (July 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5500 (Big Figure) followed by 1.5713 (Aug 12 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9235

Initial support at 0.9055 (Sept 2 low) followed by the 0.8771 (Aug 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9389 (Aug 12 high) followed by 0.9500 (Round Number).

Gold – 1245

Initial support at 1232 (Aug 31 low) followed by 1210 (Aug 24 low). Initial resistance is now at 1265 (June 21 high) followed by 1300 (round number).

Oil – 74.80

Initial support at 72.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 71.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 75.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 76.00 (Intraday Resistance).

Written by Easy-Forex

Daily Outlook – Aussie Up, Gold Down is an article from:

Written by Anthony Darvall

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was slightly weaker on the back of small gains in US stocks and increasing demand for higher yielding assets. Weekly Jobless Claims beat expectations falling to 451k vs. 478k. July’s Trade Balance also improved to -$42.8bn vs. -$49.9bn previously. In US stocks, DJIA +28 points closing at 10415, S&P +5 points closing at 1104 and NASDAQ +7 points closing at 2235.

The Euro (EUR) was up and down as the market trading in a range around the 1.2700 level. EUR/JPY continued to provide direction the popular cross rallying on good US jobs data. August German CPI was confirmed at 1.0% y/y. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2663 and a high of 1.2768 before closing at 1.2700.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the market is failing to respond to Japanese Government Officials concerns on the strength of the Yen and this is encouraging the market to test new lows. Better US data however did prompt some profit taking and the pair finished near highs at Y84. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 83.48 and a high of 84.05 before closing the day around 83.90 in the New York session. Update Chinese Trade Balance at 20bn vs. 27.1bn previously.

The Sterling (GBP) continued to weaken with the market selling rallies. The BOE failed to impact holding at 1.0% and keeping the QE steady ay 200bn. The market did sell however on weak July Trade Balance figures at -8.7bn. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5374 and a high of 1.5481 before closing the day at 1.5430 in the New York session. Looking ahead, August PPI is forecast at 0.1% vs. 0.2%.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was the strongest currency in the market rallying on the back of very strong Jobs numbers in August. Employment Change was +30k and the Unemployment Rate dropped to 5.1% vs. 5.2% previously. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9170 and a high of 0.9280 before closing the US session at 0.9230.

Oil & Gold (XAU) fell back on profit taking after failing at the $1260 level. Overall trading with a low of USD$1242 and high of USD $1259 before ending the New York session at USD$1245 an ounce. Oil failed to hold gains above $75 a barrel falling heavily in New York. WTI Oil Closed -$0.20 at $74.60 a barrel.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro – 1.2680

Initial support at 1.2588 (Aug 24 low) followed by 1.2434 (61.8% retrace of 1.1877-1.3334). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2933 (Aug 12 low) followed by 1.3000 (Big figure Resistance)

Yen – 84.10

Initial support is located at 83.35 (Sept 8 low) followed by 81.85 (May 1995 low). Initial resistance is now at 85.23 (Sept 3 high) followed by 86.36 (Aug 13 high).

Pound – 1.5410

Initial support at 1.5297 (Sept 7 low) followed by 1.5125 (July 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5500 (Big Figure) followed by 1.5713 (Aug 12 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9235

Initial support at 0.9055 (Sept 2 low) followed by the 0.8771 (Aug 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9389 (Aug 12 high) followed by 0.9500 (Round Number).

Gold – 1245

Initial support at 1232 (Aug 31 low) followed by 1210 (Aug 24 low). Initial resistance is now at 1265 (June 21 high) followed by 1300 (round number).

Oil – 74.80

Initial support at 72.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 71.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 75.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 76.00 (Intraday Resistance).

Written by Easy-Forex

Daily Outlook – Aussie Up, Gold Down is an article from:

The Euro remained vulnerable in European trading on Wednesday, but did find support below the 1.27 level as the dollar also found it difficult to gain any significant buying support.

Demand in the latest Euro-zone bond auctions was subdued and yields rose compared with the previous sales which indicated that there were important underlying stresses. There was, however, relief that demand was slightly stronger than expected and this did provide some relief for the Euro. ECB member Weber was also less pessimistic over the liquidity situation in his most recent comments which helped underpin the currency.

There were no major US economic data releases during the day, but there was a further contraction in consumer credit, maintaining the trend seen over the past 2 years. The Federal Reserve released its Beige book and the report suggested that there were widespread signs that growth within the economy had eased over the past few weeks. Confidence in the US economy will certainly remain fragile and strong buying support for the dollar remains unlikely.

There has been no sign of renewed stress in Libor markets and there was no demand for dollars in the latest European bank auctions which will also tend to curb dollar support. Overall confidence in the global economy is still likely to weaken which will provide some defensive support. The Euro nudged back above the 1.27 level, but hit resistance above 1.2750 on Thursday.

Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

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Yen

The dollar remained weak on Wednesday with the US currency hitting fresh 15-year lows below 83.50 against the Japanese currency while the Euro also tested support below 106. Risk appetite stabilised later in the US session and this curbed yen buying support to some extent.

Bank of Japan officials continued to suggest the possibility of intervention to restrain the yen and markets will inevitably remain on high alert for action.

The evidence suggests that there is still strong Chinese demand for Japanese securities which will provide some underlying yen support. There will also be a persistent lack of confidence in the US and Euro-zone economies which will tend to provide default yen protection. The dollar consolidated just below 84 with a reluctance to extend long yen positions given the intervention threat. 

Sterling

Sterling gained support in Europe on Wednesday from a stronger than expected Halifax housing report which recorded a 0.2% increase in prices for August compared with expectations of a monthly decline. There was further buying against the Euro which pushed the currency to a high near 1.55 against the dollar before a sharp retreat.

Sterling gained renewed support later in the US session as risk appetite improved while there was also some defensive support for the currency as there was a persistent lack of confidence in the Euro-zone.

The Bank of England interest rate decision will be watched very closely on Thursday. Ahead of the MPC vote, there has been some speculation that there could be a more to fresh quantitative easing. At this stage, it looks more likely that the bank will wait to assess further developments and a decision to hold policy steady would provide some degree of initial Sterling support.

There will still be a lack of confidence in the UK economy which will tend to limit support and it continued to hit selling interest above 1.55 against the US dollar.

Swiss franc

The Euro hit fresh record lows against the franc on Wednesday, weakening to a low point beyond 1.28 as confidence in the Euro-zone debt markets remained weak.

There was some recovery later in US trading with relief that the bond auctions had found reasonable demand while underlying risk appetite also improved.

The franc will continue to gain underlying support from persistent weak sentiment surrounding the Euro-zone and US economies with the Swiss authorities also seen as a staunch defender of currency value in the longer term.

Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

Call now and you will be provided with FREE recent forecasts
that are up to 86% accurate * 800-732-5407
If you would rather have the recent forecasts sent to you, please go here

Australian dollar

The Australian dollar was able to resist selling pressure on Wednesday and consolidated above the 0.91 level with a further boost from an improvement in risk appetite.

The Australian labour-market data was stronger than expected with a further employment increase of over 30,000 for August while unemployment fell to 5.1% from 5.3%. The strength of recent employment data has again been in sharp contrast to weaker survey evidence and there will be doubts whether the economic gains are sustainable.

Nevertheless, the combination of firm data and a slight improvement in risk appetite pushed the Australian dollar to a high above the 0.92 level against the US dollar.

Read More at TraderPlanet.com »

Strong Buying Support for the Dollar Remains Unlikely is an article from:

The Euro remained vulnerable in European trading on Wednesday, but did find support below the 1.27 level as the dollar also found it difficult to gain any significant buying support.

Demand in the latest Euro-zone bond auctions was subdued and yields rose compared with the previous sales which indicated that there were important underlying stresses. There was, however, relief that demand was slightly stronger than expected and this did provide some relief for the Euro. ECB member Weber was also less pessimistic over the liquidity situation in his most recent comments which helped underpin the currency.

There were no major US economic data releases during the day, but there was a further contraction in consumer credit, maintaining the trend seen over the past 2 years. The Federal Reserve released its Beige book and the report suggested that there were widespread signs that growth within the economy had eased over the past few weeks. Confidence in the US economy will certainly remain fragile and strong buying support for the dollar remains unlikely.

There has been no sign of renewed stress in Libor markets and there was no demand for dollars in the latest European bank auctions which will also tend to curb dollar support. Overall confidence in the global economy is still likely to weaken which will provide some defensive support. The Euro nudged back above the 1.27 level, but hit resistance above 1.2750 on Thursday.

Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

Call now and you will be provided with FREE recent forecasts
that are up to 86% accurate * 800-732-5407
If you would rather have the recent forecasts sent to you, please go here

Yen

The dollar remained weak on Wednesday with the US currency hitting fresh 15-year lows below 83.50 against the Japanese currency while the Euro also tested support below 106. Risk appetite stabilised later in the US session and this curbed yen buying support to some extent.

Bank of Japan officials continued to suggest the possibility of intervention to restrain the yen and markets will inevitably remain on high alert for action.

The evidence suggests that there is still strong Chinese demand for Japanese securities which will provide some underlying yen support. There will also be a persistent lack of confidence in the US and Euro-zone economies which will tend to provide default yen protection. The dollar consolidated just below 84 with a reluctance to extend long yen positions given the intervention threat. 

Sterling

Sterling gained support in Europe on Wednesday from a stronger than expected Halifax housing report which recorded a 0.2% increase in prices for August compared with expectations of a monthly decline. There was further buying against the Euro which pushed the currency to a high near 1.55 against the dollar before a sharp retreat.

Sterling gained renewed support later in the US session as risk appetite improved while there was also some defensive support for the currency as there was a persistent lack of confidence in the Euro-zone.

The Bank of England interest rate decision will be watched very closely on Thursday. Ahead of the MPC vote, there has been some speculation that there could be a more to fresh quantitative easing. At this stage, it looks more likely that the bank will wait to assess further developments and a decision to hold policy steady would provide some degree of initial Sterling support.

There will still be a lack of confidence in the UK economy which will tend to limit support and it continued to hit selling interest above 1.55 against the US dollar.

Swiss franc

The Euro hit fresh record lows against the franc on Wednesday, weakening to a low point beyond 1.28 as confidence in the Euro-zone debt markets remained weak.

There was some recovery later in US trading with relief that the bond auctions had found reasonable demand while underlying risk appetite also improved.

The franc will continue to gain underlying support from persistent weak sentiment surrounding the Euro-zone and US economies with the Swiss authorities also seen as a staunch defender of currency value in the longer term.

Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

Call now and you will be provided with FREE recent forecasts
that are up to 86% accurate * 800-732-5407
If you would rather have the recent forecasts sent to you, please go here

Australian dollar

The Australian dollar was able to resist selling pressure on Wednesday and consolidated above the 0.91 level with a further boost from an improvement in risk appetite.

The Australian labour-market data was stronger than expected with a further employment increase of over 30,000 for August while unemployment fell to 5.1% from 5.3%. The strength of recent employment data has again been in sharp contrast to weaker survey evidence and there will be doubts whether the economic gains are sustainable.

Nevertheless, the combination of firm data and a slight improvement in risk appetite pushed the Australian dollar to a high above the 0.92 level against the US dollar.

Read More at TraderPlanet.com »

Strong Buying Support for the Dollar Remains Unlikely is an article from:

• The Dollar Traded weaker yesterday as risk aversion was in put on hold after concerns about the Euro zone faded on solid auction from some European Countries. US stocks also rallied as new stimulus proposals from Obama ahead of the US Mid-term elections were announced. In US the DJIA traded +46 points higher closing at 10387 the S&P traded +7 points higher closing at 1098. Looking ahead, July Trade Balance is forecast at -47.3bn vs. -49.9bn previously. Also released, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 470k vs. 472k previously. US 2 year treasury yields traded lower to 0.50% and the USDJPY price action was between 83.32 – 84.03.

  The Euro rallied off lows as the successful Portuguese Debt Auction went well and fears eased on the Irish banking situation. The Irish government proposed that nationalized banks be split into ‘good’ and ‘bad’ banks. German Trade Balance was 12.7bn Surplus in July. ECB member Weber also said that Basel 3 negotiations will be concluded this weekend. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2658 and a high of 1.2765 before closing at 1.2730. Looking ahead, August CPI forecast at 0.0% vs. 0.3% m/m.  

Currency to watch out for: EURUSD & USDJPY

• § The EURUSD pivot point is at 1.2730 with a preference to enter into Short positions at 1.2720
• § The USDJPY pivot point is at 83.85 with a preference to enter Short positions at 83.80               

Today’s calendar and market movers:

• § Germany Consumer Price index for August expected unchanged.
• § United Kingdom Bank Of England Rate decision expected unchanged at 0.5%
• § United States Jobless Claims for the week expected at 4.45 mio
• § United States Crude Oil inventories for the week expected at 0.7 mio 

Equity Markets: 

• US equities closed positive yesterday with the S&P500 at 0.64% and the DJIA at 0.45%. The European bourses were positive with the FTSE up 0.41% the DAX and the CAC closing at 0.76% and 0.92% respectively. The NIKKEI and the HSI at the time of writing is 0.68% and 0.55% respectively.

Written by Easy-Forex

EU Morning Report – Risk aversion subsides briefly, markets consolidate! is an article from: