Daily Outlook – Irish Bailout Hits Political Stumbling block

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) gained against most pairs as the Euro led the collapse of most majors. Stocks in the US came under heavy pressure on news of a major insider trading case developing. A relief rally into the US close helped most currencies bounce off lows. In US stocks, DJIA -24 points closing at 11178, S&P -1 points closing at 1198 and NASDAQ +13 points closing at 2532. Looking ahead, Q3 GDP forecast at 2.4% vs. 2% previously. October Existing Home Sales forecast at 4.49mn vs. 4.53mn. Closely watched FOMC Minutes are also set to be released.

The Euro (EUR) initial enthusiasm for the bailout plan faded into doubt during the European session as the Irish opposition called for an election in response to the Government’s handling of the debt crisis. Focus is also spreading to Portugal and Greece and debt crisis contagion. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3575 and a high of 1.3788 before closing at 1.3620. Looking ahead, German Q3 GDP forecast to be unrevised at 0.7%. November German PMI Manufacturing is forecast 56.8 vs. 54.8 previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the range trading continued with the major being dragged slightly lower due to heavy cross selling especially on the EUR/JPY. The outlook is mixed as recent USD strength competes with the Yen’s safe haven status. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 83.21 and a high of 83.58 before closing the day around 83.35 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) held up better than the Euro but was still under pressure after a rally above 1.6000 was sold aggressively during the latter part of Europe. Support was found at 1.5900 and the market recovered with US stocks into the close. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5896 and a high of 1.6087 before closing the day at 1.5950 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) tracked the risk on/risk off change in investor sentiment rallying to 0.9950 highs during the European session before falling sharply to the lower 0.9800 levels. The outlook is cautious with the recent large uptrend in danger of unwinding if the stock market rally begins to unravel. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9822 and a high of 0.9956 before closing the US session at 0.9870.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold did well as investors searched for an alternate currency to invest in. Overall trading with a low of USD$1348 and high of USD $1368 before ending the New York session at USD$1362 an ounce. Oil came under pressure after rallying in Asia to finish slightly lower on the day. WTI Oil Closed -$0.33 at $81.65 a barrel.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro – 1.3605

Initial support at 1.3448 (Nov 16 low) followed by 1.3435 (50% retrace of 1.2588-1.4282). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3825 (Nov 9 High) followed by 1.4282 (Nov 4 high)

Yen – 83.35

Initial support is located at 82.40 (Nov 15 low) followed by 81.66 (Nov 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 83.99 (Oct 5 high) followed by 85.40 (Sept 24 high).

Pound – 1.5950

Initial support at 1.5840 (Nov 16 Low) followed by 1.5762 (Oct 28 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6299 (Nov 4 high) followed by 1.6458 (Jan 19 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9875

Initial support at 0.9813 (Nov 19 low) followed by the 0.9652 (Oct 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0004 (Nov 12 high) followed by 1.0183 (Nov 5 high).

Gold – 1364

Initial support at 1329 (Nov 16 low) followed by 1315 (Oct 22 low). Initial resistance is now at 1424 (Nov 9 high) followed by 1500 (Round Number).

Oil – 81.70

Initial support at 81.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 80.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 82.50 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 84.00 (Intraday Resistance).

Written by Anthony Darvall

Written by Easy-Forex

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