European Market Update – 2/12/10
Friday, February 12th, 2010European Market Update: China’s PBoC increases its Reserve Requirement Ratio by another 50bps; Various European countries Q4 GDP fail to meet expectations
*** ECONOMIC DATA ***
- (IN) India Dec Industrial Production Y/Y: 16.8% v 12.4%e
- (GE) Germany Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.0% v 0.2%e; GDP Y/Y: % v -1.6%e; GDP WDA Y/Y: -2.4% v -2.2%e
- (FI) Finland Dec Final Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 1.3% v -0.1% prior
- (FI) Finland Dec GDP Indicator Y/Y: -5.3% v -6.4% prior
- (FR) France Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v -0.3%e
- (FR) France Q4 Preliminary Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q: -0.4% v -0.3%e; Wages Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.3%e
- (AS) Austria Q4 GDP Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: -1.5% v -3.2% prior
- (CZ) Czech Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.6% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: -4.2% v -2.7%e
- (SP) Spain Jan Consumer price Index M/M: -1.0% v -1.0%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.0%e
- (SP) Spain Jan CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -1.1% v -1.0%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.1%e
- (SP) Spain Jan CPI Core M/M: -1.6% v -1.3%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.4%e
- (HU) Hungary Jan CPI M/M: 1.4% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 6.4% v 5.7%e
- (HU) Hungary Q4 Preliminary GDP Y/Y: -4.0% v -5.0%e
- (NE) Netherlands Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -2.2% v -2.5%e
- (NE) Netherlands Dec Trade Balance: €2.1 v €3.0B prior; Retail sales Y/Y: -3.2% v -6.4% prior
- (CZ) Czech Dec Current Account (CZK) -11.3B v -9.0Be
- (IT) Italy Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -2.8% v -2.6%e
- (PO) Portugal Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.0% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -2.6% v -1.0%
- (GR) Greece Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.8% v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: -2.6% v -2.5% prior
- (EU Euro-Zone Q4 Advance GDP Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -2.1% v -1.9%e
- (EU) Euro-Zone Dec Industrial Production M/M: -1.7% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -5.0% v -1.7%e
- (BR) Brazil Feb FGV Inflation: 1.1% v 1.0%e
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
- In equities: Alleviation of fears in the Euro zone and a Chinese equity bounce ahead of the Lunar New Year led to a positive open in European equity trading. Surprisingly strong figures from German listed steel and industrial service name ThyssenKrupp [TKA.GE] supported this rotation. Initial trades saw positive positions for the banking sector and energy on large macro flows. Equities seemed to be developing a course to post 5-consecutive strongly positive sessions. This flow, and the entire sentiment of the session, was correct just ahead of 5:00EST on the back of PBOC reserve requirement rise. European equity markets and US futures reacted instantaneously by pulling back sharply. The heavily internationally geared FTSE100 took the largest bruising as both miners and financials moved dramatically south. Lloyds [LLOY.UK] led UK banks lower following finalization of a 3.14B share exchange offer and the Chinese move. Into 5:30, on heavy trading volumes the risk aversion theme was back on in Europe:
In individual equities: ThyssenKrupp [TKA.GE]: Reports Q1 adj pretax €237M v €112Me, Net €164M v €64Me, Rev €9.4B v €9.9Be. || Michelin [ML.FR]: Reports FY09 Net €104M v €121Me, Rev €14.8B v €14.9Be. || Technip [TEC.FR]: Announces Charge for Potential Resolution of SKJ Nigeria Matter at $245M; Guides FY09 Rev €6.46B v €6.5Be (prior guidance €6.4B). || ENI [ENI.IT]: Reports Q4 Net €641M v €1.21Be, Op prof €3.7B v €3.5Be; Proposes FY09 dividend at €1/share v €1.30/share y/y. ||
- Speakers: ECB’s Trichet endorsed the EU Summit statement on Greece. He commented that the ECB and EU commission might propose additional measures for the country. ECB is “permanently alert” on Greece and that the ECB and EU commission were closely watching Greece’s progress. ***China State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) stated that China was facing increasing pressure from foreign exchange inflows as the global economic recovery gained momentum. Pick-up in exports and inbound foreign direct investment along with an increase in speculative investment are driving the inflows. ***SNB spokesperson had no comments on currency intervention rumors circulating, which is its standard policy on that topic. ***ECB’s Stark stated in a Der Spiegel interview that IMF aid for Greece was not an appropriate option and added that Greece must take more consolidation efforts. He described the Greek budget plan as ‘absolute minimum’ but noted a default of Greece is not a scenario for him. A common Euro zone bond was not a solution for Greece’s fiscal situation and did not solve its structural problems. He added that one must not forget that interest rates must rise in the mid/long term. *** China’s Premier Wen stated after the PBoC raidsed the reserve requirement that China must secure a steady and relatively fast economic development *** Spain Dep Fin Min Campa commented that Spanish inflation would remain moderate over the next few months
- Currencies: EUR continued to trade under pressure as markets remain disappointed by the lack of details stemming from the EU Summit on Greece. Dealers highlighted that the 1.35 option was at ‘in play’ from the onset of trading today. China’s PBoC raised its reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for the second time this year providing the catalyst for further risk aversion sentiment. Equity market in both Europe and the US slump in the aftermath from the ratio hike as did energy and commodity prices. The USD and JPY benefited from the risk aversion flows. ***The GBP has benefited from the EUR woes early in the session. GBP/USD was initially firmer in the European morning aided by a UK clearer selling pressure via EUR/GBP cross for the second straight day. However, the GBP lost its upward momentum on the increase risk flow of the session. The SNB once again denied comments as the EUR/CHF cross briefly jumped higher to test near 1.47 . The AUD and CAD price action followed the energy and metal markets in the aftermath of the PBoC RRR increase
- Fixed Income: The PBoC’s reserve ratio hike was a game changer this morning , rendering the preceding events of the session almost irrelevant and finally taking Greece out of the headlines, at least for now. European GDP numbers were generally weak, with zero growth in Germany and just +0.1% for the Euro-zone as a whole so bonds were enjoying a modest bid that has now predictably accelerated. Rounding out the supply for the week, Italy sold almost €8B in BTPs with no hiccups to speak of.
-Geo/political: Nigeria’s new acting President Jonathan Goodluck chaired a meeting between executives from Chevron, Exxon and Royal Dutch in an attempt to rebuild international confidence in the countries energy supplies. Key topics in the conversation regarded security, following announcements from the rebel MEND group to step up attacks. Goodluck is the first Nigerian President that is a member of the ethnic minority which inhabits Nigeria’s oil rich, but chronically poor Niger Delta region. ***China continues to balk at plans by US Pres Obama to meet the Dalai Lama, scheduled for Feb 18. China urged the US to immediately call off the meeting and respect the high level of sensitivity regarding the issue. Since military action in 1950, the PRC has seen the Dalai Lama as a separatist leader, striving to isolate his position internationally. Meetings in 2009 with French Pres Sarkozy led to the cancellation of several bilateral French-China meetings. ***Finland’s Environmental Agency gave the green light to construction of the Nord Stream pipeline. The undersea pipeline will run from export terminals in Russia, bringing natural gas directly to Germany via the Baltic Sea. The operation, costing up to €15B is expected to delivery its first gas in 2011. Nord Stream has been a contentious political, economic and environmental issue in the wider region. ***Yemen has again reached a tentative cease fire with Northern rebel groups. A cease fire declared in January lasted less than two days. Terms of the cease fire include all the demands from Yemen, including disarmament, prisoner release and a vow to halt attacks into Saudi Arabia
***Notes:
- China PBoC raises the reserve requirement ratio for the second time this year to cool off the lending faucet. China’s forthcoming New Year holiday and a long weekend end in the U.S. was seen to curb market participation.
- Trichet: Will work with EU commission on additional measures. Highlights that one can count on ECBs “permanent alertness”.
- German press noting that France backs Bundesbank (and ECB) member Weber for the position of ECB president
***Looking Ahead:
- 8:00 (PD) Poland Dec Trade Balance: -€650Me v -€292M prior; Current Account: -€862Me v -€1.3B prior; Exports €7.9B v €9.1B prior; Imports: €8.7Be v €9.4B prior
- 8:30 (US) Jan Advance Retail Sales: 0.3%e v -0.3% prior; Ex-Autos: 0.5%e v -0.2% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Dec New Motor Vehicle Sales M/M: 2.0%e v -6.0% prior
- 9:55 (US) Feb Preliminary University of Mich Confidence: 75.0e v 74.4 prior
- 10:00 (US) Dec Business Inventories: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior
- Dept of Energy data
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Jan Consumer prices M/M: 1.1%e v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 7.7% prior
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Jan Wholesale price M/M: No est v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 10.0% prior
- 14:30 Fed’s Tarullo
Written by Trade the News
