European Market Update – 3/16/10

Tuesday, March 16th, 2010

European Market Update: German ZEW survey highlights German export recovery; Reserve currency issue continues to simmer for USD

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***
- (JP) Japan Feb Final Machine Tool Orders: 217.4% v 217.3% prior
- (SZ) Swiss SECO Mar Forecasts: Raises 2010 GDP view to 1.4% from 0.7% seen in Dec forecasts
- (EU) Euro Zone Feb EU-25 Car Registrations: 3.0% v 12.9% prior
- (FR) France Feb Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.6% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.1%e
- (FR) France Feb CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.6% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.1%e; CPI Ex Tobacco: 118.99 v 118.68e
- (CZ) Czech Jan Retail Sales Y/Y: -5.0% v -2.5%e
- (TU) Turkey Feb Consumer Confidence: 81.9v 79.0e
- (SP) Spain Q4 House Prices Q/Q: -0.4% v -0.9% prior; Y/Y: -4.3% v -7.0% prior
- (NE) Netherlands Jan Industrial Production M/M: 6.7% v 1.1%e; Y/Y: 6.4% v 1.6%e ; Industrial Sales Y/Y: 7.9% v 3.9% prior
- (NE) Netherlands Jan Retail Sales Y/Y: -4,9% v -3.0%e
- (AS) Austral Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.1% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.2% prior
- (IT) Italy Feb Final CPI (incl tobacco) M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e
- (IT) Italy Feb Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.1%e
- (UK) Jan DCLG House Prices Y/Y: 6.2% v 3.5%e
- (GE) Germany Mar ZEW Economic Sentiment: 44.5 v 43.5e; Current Situation: -51.9 v -52.0e
- (EU) Euro Zone CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.9%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.8%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar ZEW Economic Sentiment: 37.9 v 38.5e

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
- Equities: Markets in Europe have bounced sharply off their losses from yesterday’s session. Trading in Asia failed to set a clear tone while expectations following the beginning of the BOJ’s two date rate decision process have been positive. With a US FOMC decision expected in the US trading session, positions are expected to remain cautious through the European morning. Banks have been the strongest gainers in the session, with Deutsche Bank [DBK.GE] reporting its final annual report and speculation that RBS [RBS.UK] may seek to buy back billions of outstanding debt in a balance sheet reorganization activity. Auto’s have rotated higher following EU car sales figures for Feb, with Renault [RNO.FR] outperforming on speculation that the group is in an equity/cooperation venture with Daimler [DAI.GE]. European steel names have been strong, supported by a positive note from UBS on pricing levels and the possibility to passing rising input costs on to end users. Shares that rotated lower were mainly the defensives that outperformed yesterday. Earnings from retailer GDS [GFS.UK] were greeted poorly while broader utility and pharma names moved lower. Into 6:30EST, equity markets have tested new highs following CPI and ZEW data, markets have been trading on very light volumes.

- In equities: Debenhams [DEB.UK]: Reports H1 Rev +1.7% y/y; LFL +0.3%. || G4S [GFS.UK]: Reports FY09 pretax profit £303M v £263M y/y, Rev £7B v £7.1Be. || Lindt & Spruengli [LISP.SZ]: Reports final FY09 Net CHF193M v 201Me; Increases dividend by 11% to CHF400/shr from CHF360/shr. || Unicredit [UCG.IT]: Reportedly CEO Alessandro Profumo considering resignation. || Deutsche Post [DPW.GE]: Reports final FY09: Positive 2010 trend likely to continue in 2011; Reiterates FY10 guidance. || Deutsche Bank [DBK.GE]: Reports final FY09: guides FY11 profit target of €10B. ||

- Speakers: Japan Finance Min Kan: Caution needed in managing FX reserves; should examine if the size of reserves are appropriate *** Saudi Arabia Oil Min Naimi commented that it would not allow global oil markets to get too tight and noted that current oil forward supply seen at 59 days. He did note that has seen signs that the oil market had tightened but was uncertain whether OPEC members would raise output target in 2010 *** Angola Oil Min Vasconcelos commented that Angola could ask OPEC for exemption from prior oil output cuts and noted that it was pumping over 1.7M bpd (above its OPEC quota). He did note that OPEC was comfortable with current oil prices ***Treasury Chief Byrne commented that the EU deficit plan for UK was too aggressive and would require additional £20B in cuts. He noted that Labor would cut the structural deficit by two-thirds *** Slew of comments from the finance ministers of the 27 EU states ahead of a meeting in Brussels. Spain Fin Min Salgado commented that Greece did not need aid at this time and that the EU would continue its discussions regarding the country’s situation. ***German Fin Min Schaeuble: Reaffirms commitment to reducing govt borrowing in the next few years. Noted that speculation against currencies are a concern. EU member states need to become more competitive. ***ZEW’s Franz commented that the German economic recovery was still far from full recovery and illustrated that business activity has moved from intensive car to rehab. He added that ECB interest rate expectations were largely unchanged *** ZEW economists commented that exports would drive German economic growth but expected conditions to improve slowly. It noted that the Greece fiscal situation had been priced in. it also commented that inflationary expectations were moving lower and in line with moderate economic growth outlook.

- Currencies: Reserve currency debate continues to simmer but the market focus will be on central bank alert over the next 24 hours with the Fed and BOJ decisions expected. Dealers did note some reserve manager appetite for EUR and GBP in the early part of the session when the dollar was initially firmer. The US TIC data release on Monday provided some ammunition for dollar bears as the Chinese holdings of US Treasuries declined for the third straight month. A group of 130 members of the US House of Representatives have reportedly requested US Treasury Sec Geithner to name China as a currency manipulator in the upcoming Treasury Semi-annual currency report due out in mid-April. l The exchange of words between the two nations has picked up recently. China and US has lashed out on the Yuan currency issue ever since Obama’s state of the union address the President urged for a doubling of US exports over the next 5 years. ***On the European peripheral situation the market reaction to developments on Greece has been muted but the constructive tone has been aiding the Euro in the sentiment. The better European data helped the Euro and GBP moved towards their best levels ahead of the NY morning with EUR/USD at 1.3690 and the GBP/USD hovering around the 1.51 area after testing 1.4980 in the early moments of the session on M&A related selling pressures. The JPY was off its best levels as the BOJ met in the first of its two-day policy meeting. USD/JPY at 90.60 after testing 90 handle in late Asia

- Geo/political: In a further voter reflection of post-recession political anger, Russian regional election have delivered a small, but clear challenge to the near authoritarian rule to the Putin backed United Russia. Russia held election in 8 Oblasts, while United Russia polled a plurality in all contests, their vote totals fell significantly from 2007 elections and Communists candidates took seats, and the Mayor post in Irkutsk. Local pundits have pointed to voter anger over rising costs of transportation and utilities in a hydrocarbon rich country. Since election to the Presidency, Medvedev (United Russia) has pursued a policy of moderate relaxation in relation to elections, the results of this turnout will test the resolve of these efforts.
US diplomats in Northern Mexico have evacuated dependents following cartel related shootings that killed three in hit-and-run attacks in Ciudad Juarez. Officials from the FBI have joined Mexican authorities to support a search that is strongly backed by US Pres Obama. The killings, while the first to affect officially represented US nationals, has only served to highlight the intensification of violence between warring drug and cartel circles that is now rampant in Mexico. Ciudad Juarez outranks Baghdad and Kabul as the most dangerous city on earth due to the scale of daily violence.

***Notes:
- German ZEW survey better than expectations but highlights exports as the basis for recovery
- French inflation data ‘hotter’ than expectations but well within the ECB target
- US TIC data getting discussed on dealing desks ahead of next month Treasury report on currency manipulators
- FOMC decision later today and traders eyeing the language of the exit strategy

***Looking Ahead:
- 7:45 (US) ICSC/GS weekly chain store sales w/w March 13th:
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Jan Manufacturing Sales M/M: No est v 1.6% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Q4 Labor Productivity Q/Q: No est v -0.3% prior
- 8:30 (US) Feb Import Price Index M/M: -0.2%e v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: 11.3%e v 11.5% prior
- 8:30 (US) Feb Housing Starts: 570Ke v 591K prior; Building Permits: 601Ke v 622K prior
- 8:55 (US) (US) Redbook Retail Sales for the week ending Mar 6th
- 9:00 (PD) Poland Feb Avg Gross Wage M/M: 1.5%e v -11.5% prior; Y/Y: 3.1%e v 0.5% prior
- 9:00 (PD) Poland Feb Employment M/M: -0.1%e v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: -1.0%e v -1.4% prior
- 10:00 EU’s Rehn and Spains Fin Min Salgado
- 11:45 ECB’s Stark
- 14:00 (US) FOMC Interest Rate Decision: Analyst expectations for the interest rate to remain unchanged at 0.25%
- 15:00 (UK) BOE’s Bean

Written by Trade the News

European Market Update – 3/16/10

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