Equities	EUROPE				US				ASIA3
	FTSE 100	1.92%			S&P 500	0.89%			NIKKEI	0.76%
	DAX	2.44%			DJIA	0.66%			HIS	1.61%
	CAC	2.09%			NASDAQ	1.22%			CSI 300	1.75%

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EU Morning Report- Euro jumps as global growth fears ease is an article from:

Deutsche Boerse board member wants CEO out: paper (Reuters) is an article from:

January’s estimated change in employment was released on Wednesday, 1^st of February, by the ADP. Their latest estimate, known to be a leading indicator of the Non-Farm employment change, came out below expectations at 170,000 jobs pointing to a weaker Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reading. ADP’s forecast, which excludes the farming industry and government, reported 95,000 jobs coming from small businesses versus to a negligible 3,000 jobs by large companies. Furthermore, the ADP’s December figure was revised down to 292,000 from 325,000 jobs reported.

On Thursday, 2^nd of February, the US Department of Labor released a better than expected Unemployment Claims figure. This item is perceived as much less important as ADP, as it only gauges past weeks employment activity. In any case, the claims recorded a drop to 367,000 from the previous 379,000, and different scenarios have now surfaced regarding the NFP release on Friday, 3^rd of February.

The Non-Farm Payrolls print in December presented an addition of 200,000 jobs in employment, after the 100,000 jobs added in November. This was further bolstered by the unemployment rate, which – surprisingly – dropped to 8.5% from a revised 8.7%. The consensus for NFP’s upcoming release centers around 150,000 jobs.

Recent developments

The Federal Reserve, concerned about the elevated jobless rate and high number of unemployed citizens, it announced that it will maintain its benchmark lending rate near zero, up until 2014. This was a change from a previous announcement that it intended no alteration up until mid-2013.

The annualized GDP for the 4^th quarter came out at 2.8%, which although less than expected, remains a solid figure. Increased Durable Goods Orders paired with a sturdy ISM Manufacturing PMI reading above 50, are two economic indicators of a strengthening business sentiment. This is of course promising readings for the US labor market that remains fragile.

Third round of quantitative easing

Employment in the world’s leading economy is expected to have expanded by another 145,000 jobs in January. In this case, the current recovery in the US labor market may boost the US dollar as such data will diminish the scope for a third round of quantitative easing. If and as the economic activity accelerates, the Federal Reserve is expected to lessen its dovish tone for monetary policy, and the nation’s central bank may choose to hold back and closely monitor economic developments throughout the coming months as the possibility of a double-dip recession fades away.

On the contrary, if we witness a deceleration in employment in the midst of a challenging world-wide environment, at the same time as fundamental outlook for US remains vague, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will keep highlighting the enduring weakness of the real economy. This will leave the door open to expand the central bank’s balance sheet further, and speculation for further quantitative easing will heighten. In this case, the attractiveness of the US dollar will dampen as the Fed’s policy persuades risk-appetite trading.

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Special Report – Pre-NFP data provide mixed signals is an article from:

Equities	EUROPE				US				ASIA3
	FTSE 100	0.09%			S&P 500	0.11%			NIKKEI	-0.51%	▼
	DAX	0.59%			DJIA	-0.09%	▼		HIS	0.09%
	CAC	0.27%			NASDAQ	0.40%			CSI 300	0.75%

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EU Morning Report- Eyes turn to the US jobs data is an article from:

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U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the sentiment remained positive in the markets overnight but little happened in the market overnight with traders still waiting on final details if the Greece debt deal and the major risk event of the week in the market the January US Non-Farm Payrolls is ahead on Friday. Weekly Jobless Claims came in at 367k vs. 375k previously. In US stocks, DJIA -11 points closing at 12705, S&P +1 points closing at 1325 and NASDAQ +11 points closing at 2859k. Looking ahead, January US Nonfarm Payrolls forecast at 170k vs. 212k previously.

The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD traded in a relatively tight range between 1.3100 and 1.3175 supported on the back of positive Spanish Bond Auctions. The market is waiting final details on the Greece debt deal expected today for next direction before the US jobs data impacts the major via the USD component. Looking ahead, January PMI Services forecast 50.5 vs. 50.5 previously. Also ahead, December Retail Sales forecast at -1.3% vs. 2.5% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the USD/JPY went to sleep in a 10 pip range as the market consolidate and the crosses got very little direction from the quiet stocks markets. The US Jobs data has the potential to move the pair as the critical piece of data will highlight the health of the US economic recovery. Support is seen under Y76 and intervention was done at Y75.30 last year by the BOJ.

The Sterling (GBP) the GBP/USD was also in consolidation mode stick to a 50 pip range supported at the 1.5850 level as well and will be looking to fresh inspiration from the Greece and the US data tonight. The EUR/GBP is pivoting the 0.8300 level and is an important cross to gauge the relative strength of the Pound. Looking ahead, January PMI services forecast at 53.5 vs. 54 previously.

Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD followed the same theme trading in a 50 pip range above the 1.0700 level and the consolidating the rally. Further stock market gains tonight on the back of strong US jobs numbers would be needed to move the Aussie to the next level.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold extended the rally to $1760 and consolidated just under the level. Oil is under heavy pressure after breaking the $98.50 bottom of the recent range and extended falls to $96 overnight.

Pairs to watch

OIL/USD breaking down technically

EUR/CHF SNB has to act soon to protect 1.2000 target

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro – 1.3145

Initial support at 1.3000 (Big Figure Support) followed by 1.2931 (Jan25 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3244 (38.2% retrace of 1.4247-1.2624) followed by 1.3386 (Dec 12 high)

Yen – 76.20

Initial support is located at 76.00 (big figure) followed by 75.35 (Big Figure). Initial resistance is now at 77.49 (Jan 27) followed by 77.82 (Jan 26 high).

Pound – 1.5825

Initial support at 1.5642 (Jan 27 low) followed by 1.5517 (Jan 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5889 (Nov 18 high) followed by 1.5932 (Nov 15 high).

Australian Dollar – 1.0695

Initial support at 1.0573 (Jan 23 high) followed by the 1.0428 (Jan 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0765 (Sept 1 high) followed by 1.1007 (Aug 2 high).

Gold – 1757

Initial support at 1700 (Big figure resistance) followed by 1681 (Jan 23 high). Initial resistance is now at 1763 (Dec 2 high) followed by 1790 (former trendline support drawn off Oct 20 low).

Oil – 96.50

Initial support at 97.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 95.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 98.50 (Intraday resistance) followed by 100.00 (Intraday Resistance).

Written by Anthony Darvall

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Daily Outlook – US Jobs Data on Tap Ahead is an article from: