Grain Market Analysis – 01/24/11

March soybeans on Friday closed slightly lower and near mid-range. Soybean bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage at present. Prices are still in a six-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart, but have paused the past week or so. This pause is not bearish. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing January prices above solid technical resistance at $14.50 a bushel. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the January low of $13.55 1/4. First resistance is seen at Friday’s high of $14.27 and then at the contract high of $14.32 1/2. First support is seen at $14.00 and then at last week’s low of $13.83 1/2.

$14.32 1/2 — the contract high
$14.00 3/4 — 10-day moving average
$13.90 3/4 — 20-day moving average
$13.42 3/4 — 40-day moving average
$8.22 ——– the contract low

Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

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March soybean meal on Friday closed lower and nearer the session low. Prices also closed at a bearish weekly low close Friday. Soybean meal bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $400.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $370.00. First resistance comes in at $382.50 and then at Friday’s high of $385.30. First support is seen at last week’s low of $375.90 and then at $372.50.

$388.10 — contract high
$378.10 — 10-day moving average
$373.90 — 20-day moving average
$360.80 — 40-day moving average
$236.70 — the contract low

March bean oil on Thursday closed higher and near mid-range today. Bean oil bulls still have the solid overall technical advantage. Prices have been trading sideways at higher levels for three weeks. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at the contract high of 59.10 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 55.54 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 58.13 cents and then at 58.34 cents. First support is seen at Friday’s low of 57.10 cents and then at 56.66 cents.

59.10 — the contract high
57.35 — 10-day moving average
57.41 — 20-day moving average
55.70 — 40-day moving average
31.80 — the contract low

March corn futures on Friday closed firmer and near mid-range. Prices did poke to a fresh contract and 2.5-year high on Friday. A six-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart is in place for corn and the bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Corn bulls’ next upside price objective is to push and close prices above psychological technical resistance at $7.00 a bushel. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $6.27 1/2. First resistance for March corn is seen at Friday’s contract high of $6.67 and then at $6.70. First support is seen at $6.50 and then at $6.45.

$6.67 ——– the contract high
$6.43 1/2 —- 10-day moving average
$6.25 3/4 —- 20-day moving average
$6.00 1/2 —- 40-day moving average
$3.56 3/4 —- the contract low

March Chicago SRW wheat on Friday closed solidly higher, nearer the session high and hit a fresh 5.5-month high. Prices also closed at a technically bullish weekly high close on Friday. The wheat bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at contract high of $8.64 1/4 a bushel. The next downside price objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below psychological support at $8.00. First resistance is seen at Friday’s high of $8.30 and then at $8.40. First support lies at $8.10 and then at $8.00.

$8.64 1/4 — the contract high
$7.84 3/4 — 10-day moving average
$7.88 3/4 — 20-day moving average1
$7.71 1/2 — 40-day moving average
$5.04 ——- the contract low

March K.C. HRW wheat on Friday closed higher, near mid-range and hit another fresh contract high. Prices also scored a bullish weekly high close on Friday. HRW bulls have the solid overall near technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid resistance at $9.50. The bears’ next downside objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $8.65. First resistance is seen at Friday’s contract high of $9.07 3/4 and then at $9.15. First support is seen at Friday’s low of $8.91 and then at $8.80.

$9.07 3/4 — the contract high
$8.64 3/4 — 10-day moving average
$8.59 3/4 — 20-day moving average
$8.33 1/4 — 40-day moving average
$5.05 ——- the contract low