Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Blog–Friday – 01/21/11
Friday, January 21st, 2011Friday, January 21–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Gold market bulls are being tested at present, what
with the sell off that has taken prices to a fresh
two-month low below $1,350 an ounce. In the recent
past, those gold market traders looking to do some
bargain-hunting buying on dips have been rewarded
later, as prices continued to trend higher. Will
such be the case this time? Recent history suggests
so. Importantly, the gold market remains in a 10-
year old price uptrend on the longer-term charts.–
Jim
STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: Prices are seeing some profit-
taking pressure, which should be expected. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators are
bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at Thursday’s high of 1,281.80
and then at 1,290.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at 1,258.00 and then at
1,250.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating:
4.5
Nasdaq index futures: Bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages are still bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators are
bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at 2,300.00 and then at
2,315.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen
at 2,275.00 and then at Thursday’s low of 2,267.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Dow futures: Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just
below support at 11,740 and then more stops just
below support at Thursday’s low of 11,695. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance
at this week’s high of 11,815 and then at 11,850.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-
day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators are bearish early today. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages
are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are neutral early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at 120 even and then at 120
16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 119 19/32 and then at this week’s
low of 119 9/32. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5
MARCH U.S. T-Bonds
134 4/32–lifetime high
127 6/32–Previous Month’s high set on May 31
126 27/32–100-day moving average
122 8/32–second pivot point resistance
121 14/32–previous day’s high
120 28/32–first pivot point resistance
120 26/32–18-day moving average
120 26/32–9-day moving average
120 16/32–4-day moving average
120 3/32–pivot point
119 17/32–previous day’s close
119 9/32–previous day’s low
118 23/32–first pivot point support
118 21/32–previous month’s low set on Apr. 1
118 21/32–lifetime low
117 30/32–second pivot point support
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages
are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are neutral early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of
120.05.0 and then at 120.16.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of
119.27.5 and then at this week’s low of 119.22.0.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
MARCH U.S. T-Notes
127 7/32–lifetime high
124 4/32–previous month’s high set on Apr. 28
123 13/32–100-day moving average
121 13/32–second pivot point resistance
120 30/32–previous day’s high
120 21/32–9-day moving average
120 20/32–first pivot point resistance
120 17/32–4-day moving average
120 9/32–18-day moving average
120 5/32–pivot point
119 27/32–previous day’s close
119 22/32–previous day’s low
119 12/32–first pivot point support
118 29/32–second pivot point support
118 17/32–previous month’s low set on Apr. 1
109 25/32–lifetime low
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is weaker again in
early trading today. Bears have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
79.00 and then at Thursday’s high of 79.34.
Shorter-term support is seen at 78.47 and then at
78.25. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer in early trading today.
Bulls have faded with Thursday’s big losses, which
now raise the specter of a bearish double-top
reversal pattern playing out on the daily bar
chart. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at $90.50 and then at $91.00.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at
$89.50 and then at $89.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were weaker in overnight trading, on some
profit-taking pressure. Grain market bulls are
still in overall near-term technical and
fundamental control. Corn bulls made a very
impressive recovery on Thursday, which underscores
the underlying strength of all the grain markets,
at present. Still, veteran traders are wondering
when, or if, the seasonal “February Break”
phenomenon will occur in the grains. My bias is
still that the “break” is coming soon.
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