Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Blog–Thursday – 01/27/11
Thursday, January 27th, 2011Thursday, January 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
My bias is that the grain markets will experience
some degree of a “February Break” seasonal
phenomenon soon. The February Break is a short
period of grain futures price weakness that usually
occurs around this time almost every year. One clue
to support this notion is that commodity sector
leaders gold and crude oil have been their prices
trending lower for three weeks. However, I am still
grain-market-bullish and expect grain futures
prices to trend sideways to higher at least into
the summertime.–Jim
STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators are
neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at 1,300.00 and then at
1,310.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today
is located at Wednesday’s low of 1,286.20 and then
at this week’s low of 1,277.50. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Nasdaq index futures: Bulls have the overall near-
term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators are bullish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at 2,335.00 and then at last week’s high of
2,346.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen
at the overnight low of 2,313.25 and then at
Wednesday’s low of 2,298.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.5
Dow futures: Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just
below support at Wednesday’s low of 11,915 and then
more stops just below support at Tuesday’s low of
11,855. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 11,975
and then at 12,000. Shorter-term moving averages
are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators
are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages
are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are bearish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at 120 even and then at the
overnight high of 120 13/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 119 16/32 and then at
last week’s low of 119 9/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5
MARCH U.S. T-Bonds
120 16/32–pivot point
119 16/32–first pivot point support
118 30/32–second pivot point support
121 2/32–first pivot point resistance
122 2/32–second pivot point resistance
120 18/32–4-day moving average
120 19/32–9-day moving average
120 25/32–18-day moving average
126 13/32–100-day moving average
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages
are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 120.16.0 and then at Wednesday’s
high of 120.26.5. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at 120.00.0 and then at last week’s low of
119.22.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
MARCH U.S. T-Notes
120 13/32–pivot point
120 even—first pivot point support
119 24/32–second pivot point support
120 21/32–first pivot point resistance
121 2/32–second pivot point resistance
120 13/32–4-day moving average
120 17/32–9-day moving average
120 13/32–18-day moving average
123 8/32–100-day moving average
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is weaker again in
early trading today and hit another fresh 2.5-month
low overnight. Bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 78.28 and then at 78.50.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low
of 77.71 and then at 77.50. Wyckoff’s Intra Day
Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are weaker in early trading today.
Bulls have faded recently. In March crude, look for
buy stops to reside just above resistance at the
overnight high of $87.66 and then at $88.00. Look
for sell stops just below technical support at
$86.50 and then at $86.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Prices were steady to weaker in overnight trading
on a corrective pullback from gains seen Wednesday.
Grain market bulls are still in overall near-term
technical and fundamental control. Traders will
closely examine this morning’s weekly USDA export
sales data. Recent U.S. export sales data has been
bullish for the grains.
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