Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Blog–Thursday – 12/02/10
Thursday, December 2nd, 2010Thursday, December 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
My bias is that there is more upside price pressure
likely in most commodity markets in the coming
months. There may be some downside price
corrections in the near term, due to the
strengthening U.S. dollar. However, a stronger
dollar is actually longer-term bullish for
commodities, as it signals a stronger U.S. economy,
which means stronger demand for commodities. Strong
world demand for raw commodities, especially from
China, will continue to support higher commodity
futures market prices.–Jim
STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators are neutral to
bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,211.70 and then at 1,220.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support
for active traders today is located at the
overnight low of 1,202.60 and then at 1,190.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators are bullish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at Wednesday’s high of 2,174.00 and then at
2,185.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen
at the overnight low of 2,156.75 and then at
2,150.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0
Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 11,200 and then more stops just below
support at Wednesday’s low of 11,140. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at
11,300 and then at 11,350. Shorter-term moving
averages are still bearish early today, as the 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day
moving average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators
are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages
are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are neutral to bearish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 125 5/32 and then at 125 16/32.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 124 15/32 and then at 124 even.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
MARCH U.S. T-Bonds
134 4/32–lifetime high
131 16/32–Previous Month’s high
129 2/32–100-day moving average
128 5/32–second pivot point resistance
127 6/32–previous day’s high
126 16/32–first pivot point resistance
126 15/32–18-day moving average
126 7/32–4-day moving average
126 –9-day moving average
125 17/32–pivot point
124 27/32–previous day’s close
124 18/32–previous day’s low
123 28/32–first pivot point support
123 26/32–previous month’s low
122 29/32–second pivot point support
120 26/32–lifetime low
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages
are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are bearish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of
122.30.0 and then at 123.08.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of
122.11.5 and then at 122.00.0. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.0
MARCH U.S. T-Notes
127 7/32–lifetime high
127 7/32–previous month’s high
124 24/32–second pivot point resistance
124 15/32–18-day moving average
124 4/32–previous day’s high
124 3/32–100-day moving average
123 25/32–first pivot point resistance
123 23/32–9-day moving average
123 20/32–4-day moving average
123 5/32–pivot point
123 1/32–previous month’s low
122 26/32–previous day’s close
122 17/32–previous day’s low
122 6/32–first pivot point support
121 18/32–second pivot point support
109 25/32–lifetime low
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is weaker in early
trading today, on more of a corrective pullback
after prices hit another 2.5-month high on Tuesday.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of
81.305 and then at 81.50. Shorter-term support is
seen at the overnight low of 80.87 and then at this
week’s low of 80.60. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are near steady early today and
did hit a fresh three-week high overnight. The
bulls gained fresh upside technical momentum with
Wednesday’s big gains. In January crude, look for
buy stops to reside just above resistance at the
overnight high of $87.10 and then at $87.50. Look
for sell stops just below technical support at
$86.00 and then at $85.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were weaker in overnight trading, following
sharp gains on Wednesday that did provide the bulls
with fresh upside near-term technical momentum to
suggest that near-term market lows are in place. I
am longer-term bullish the grains. Traders will
closely examine this morning’s weekly USDA export
sales report.
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