Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Blog–Wednesday – 01/26/11
Wednesday, January 26th, 2011Wednesday, January 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web
Log
JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. dollar index is a basket of six major
currencies weighted against the greenback. The
dollar index continues to weaken and hit a fresh
2.5-month low overnight. Commodity markets have
responded by trading generally higher Wednesday
morning. The path of least resistance for the
dollar index, at present, is sideways to lower.
This is an underlying bullish factor for most
commodity markets.–Jim
STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: Bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators are
bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at last week’s high of 1,296.20
and then at 1,300.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at the overnight low of
1,286.20 and then at this week’s low of 1,277.50.
Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Nasdaq index futures: Bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators are neutral to
bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at 2,325.00 and then at last
week’s high of 2,346.50. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. On the downside, short-
term support is seen at the overnight low of
2,298.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 2,281.25.
Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Dow futures: Prices hit a fresh two-year high
overnight. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just
below support at 11,900 and then more stops just
below support at Tuesday’s low of 11,855. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at
12,000 and then at 12,050. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators
are bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages
are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
are neutral early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 121 16/32 and then at Tuesday’s high of 121
26/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 121
even and then at 120 16/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5
MARCH U.S. T-Bonds
134 4/32–lifetime high
127 6/32–Previous Month’s high
126 16/32–100-day moving average
122 28/32–second pivot point resistance
122 6/32–first pivot point resistance
121 26/32–previous day’s high
121 16/32–previous day’s close
121 4/32–pivot point
120 26/32–18-day moving average
120 21/32–9-day moving average
120 14/32–first pivot point support
120 11/32–4-day moving average
120 2/32–previous day’s low
119 12/32–second pivot point support
118 21/32–previous month’s low
118 21/32–lifetime low
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages
are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 120.26.5 and then at Tuesday’s
high of 121.01.5. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 120.15.5 and then at
Tuesday’s low of 120.03.5. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0
MARCH U.S. T-Notes
127 7/32–lifetime high
124 4/32–previous month’s high
123 9/32–100-day moving average
121 19/32–second pivot point resistance
121 6/32–first pivot point resistance
121 1/32–previous day’s high
120 26/32–previous day’s close
120 21/32–pivot point
120 18/32–9-day moving average
120 13/32–18-day moving average
120 9/32–4-day moving average
120 8/32–first pivot point support
120 3/32–previous day’s low
119 23/32–second pivot point support
118 17/32–previous month’s low
109 25/32–lifetime low
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is weaker in early
trading today and hit a fresh 2.5-month low
overnight. Bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 78.17 and then at 78.50.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low
of 77.88 and then at 77.50. Wyckoff’s Intra Day
Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer in early trading today,
on short covering from recent selling pressure.
Bulls have faded badly as a bearish double-top
reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart.
In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $87.00 and then at $87.50. Look
for sell stops just below technical support at
$86.00 and then at $85.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading on a
corrective bounce from losses in corn and beans on
Tuesday, and amid today’s weaker U.S. dollar. Grain
market bulls are still in overall near-term
technical and fundamental control. However, this is
the time of year that the seasonal “February Break”
phenomenon can hit the grain markets with downside
price pressure.
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