Sunday, September 21, 2014

TEN Exclusive: Options Update – 8/29/10

Sunday, August 29th, 2010

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was in big trouble last week until it rallied back above the psychologically important level on Friday.  The Dow fell for the third week in a row.  We were in oversold territory but the market rallied on news that wasn’t good but wasn’t as bad as it could have been.  That’s fine for a one-day bounce but we don’t believe that lowering the bar for these economic reports will attract new money to the market or help to build a sustainable rally.

Retail investors remain highly skeptical and are not putting their cash into the market and funds continue to invest in bonds rather than stocks.  This pattern may continue through the mid-term elections.

The big level on the SPX that we’ll be watching is 1067 followed by 1079 to the upside and to the downside, 1040 has been established as a strong, key line of support.  A break of 1040 would send this market much lower quickly.

We remain moderately bearish until we get through the key reports due this week.

SPX Aug 29 2010

Weekly Economic Calendar:

Monday

  • The Commerce Department will release personal income and spending reports for July. Origin Agritech Ltd. (SEED) and Winn-Dixie Stores Inc. (WINN) will release their quarterly earnings reports.

Tuesday

  • The Case-Shiller home price index, the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for August will be released. Dollar-General Corp. (DG) and DSW Inc. (DSW) are scheduled to report earnings.

Wednesday

  • The ADP report on private sector job growth in August will kick off three days of employment data. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release its manufacturing index for August, while the Commerce Department will report on construction spending in July and auto sales for August. The usual weekly report on U.S. petroleum supplies is also due on Wednesday. Charming Shoppes Inc. (CHRS), H.J. Heinz. Co. (HNZ), Joy Global Inc. (JOYG), Collective Brands Inc. (PSS), and Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (HOV) will post their quarterly results.

Thursday

  • We’ll get the weekly report on new jobless claims, along with July reports on factory orders and pending home sales. Del Monte Foods Co. (DLM) and H&R Block Inc. (HRB) will report earnings.

Friday

  • The Labor Department’s numbers on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate in August. The ISM will also release its services index for August. Campbell Soup Co. (CPB) will report earnings.

New Trade Idea:

Buy Las Vegas Sands (LVS) September 29 Puts @ $1.20 or Better:

LVS Aug 29 2010

LVS bounced with the overall market but failed to get above resistance and the volume wasn’t that great.  We’re looking for it to rollover this week and we will use $2.00 as a target and $0.65 as a mental stop-loss.

Buy Amazon (AMZN) September 120 Puts @ $1.80 or Better:

AMZN Aug 29 2010

Amazon was saved by Friday’s rally but we think it may be a short-lived pop.  Use $4.50 as a target and $1.00 as a mental stop-loss.

Open Positions:

Visa (V) September 67.5 Puts @ $1.05:

The stock bounced with the overall market but failed to break above resistance where our stop is positioned.  Use $2.30 as a target and drop the stop-loss to $0.65 as a mental stop.

Aruba Networks (ARUN) September 16 Puts @ $0.75:

ARUN reports earnings tomorrow.  Continue to use $1.50 as a target and $0.40 as a mental stop-loss.

Related Reading:

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