Softs Market Commentary – 10/28/10
Thursday, October 28th, 2010March sugar closed up 96 points at 28.92 cents yesterday. Prices closed near the session high yesterday and scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart.
The bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage and were able to post strong gains yesterday despite a stronger U.S. dollar, which is another bullish clue for sugar. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. There are still no early technical clues to suggest a market top is close at hand for sugar. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to push and close prices above technical resistance at 30.00 cents. Bears’ next downside price objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 27.00 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s contract high of 29.23 cents and then at 29.50 cents. First support is seen at 28.50 cents and then at 28.36 cents.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 8.5
Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software
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December coffee closed down 240 points at 199.35 cents yesterday. Prices closed near the session low yesterday and saw profit-taking pressure. The key “outside markets” were in a bearish posture for the coffee market yesterday, as the U.S. dollar index was higher, while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes were lower. Coffee bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 210.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 190.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at 200.00 cents and then at yesterday’s high of 203.55 cents. First support is seen at 197.50 cents and then at 195.00 cents.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 8.0
December cocoa closed down $26 at $2,863 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session low yesterday after hitting another fresh nine-week high early on. Prices also scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. The key “outside markets” were in a bearish posture for the cocoa market yesterday, as the U.S. dollar index was higher, while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes were lower. Prices are still in a choppy six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $3,000. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $2,800. First resistance is seen at $2,900 and then at $2,925. First support is seen at yesterday’s low of $2,850 and then at $2,825.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.5.
December cotton closed down the 660-point limit at 123.59 cents yesterday. The market saw profit taking. While bulls do still have the solid overall technical advantage, the recent record high price volatility is a warning signal that a market topping process is now occurring. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at 120.00 cents. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above psychological resistance at 135.00 cents. First support is seen at 120.00 cents and then at 118.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 125.00 cents and then at 127.50 cents.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 9.0.
November orange juice closed up 295 points at $1.5285 yesterday. Prices closed near the session high yesterday and hit a fresh three-week high. Short covering and fresh speculative buying was featured. FCOJ bulls have regainedthe slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above strong technical resistance at $1.5750. The next downside technical objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $1.4500. First resistance is seen at yesterday’s high of $1.5315 and then at $1.5400. First support is seen at $1.5130 and then at $1.5000.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.5.
November lumber futures closed up $1.40 yesterday at $239.60. Prices closed near the session high yesterday. Lumber bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but need to show some more power soon. This is still a volatile market environment. The next upside technical objective for the lumber bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of $254.20. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $232.50. First resistance is seen at $242.50 and then at this week’s high of $245.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $235.90 and then at last week’s low of $233.00.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.0.
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