Softs Markets Price Action this Week Favors Bears
Wednesday, October 31st, 2012SOFTS: March sugar closed up 20 points at 19.61 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high on more short
covering in a bear market after hitting an 8.5-month low on
Monday. The key “outside markets” were bullish for sugar
today as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil
prices were firmer. Sugar bears still have the solid near-
term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of 20.50 cents. Bears’ next
downside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at 18.50 cents. First
resistance is seen at 19.75 cents and then at 19.95 cents.
First support is seen at today’s low of 19.42 cents and
then at this week’s low of 19.27 cents. Wyckoff’s Market
Rating: 1.5.
December coffee closed down 510 points at 156.55 cents.
Prices closed near the session low and closed at a fresh
four-month low close today. The key “outside markets were
bullish for coffee today as the U.S. dollar index was lower
and crude oil prices were higher. Yet, coffee sold off
anyway, which is a bearish near-term clue. Coffee bears
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
However, it’s around present price levels that recent
downtrends have been halted. The next upside breakout
objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at 165.70 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 150.00 cents a pound.
First resistance is seen at 158.00 cents and then at 160.00
cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 156.55 cents
and then at 152.50 cents. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 1.5
December cocoa closed up $42 at $2,392 a ton. Prices closed
near mid-range today and saw short covering. The key
“outside markets were bullish for cocoa today as the U.S.
dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were higher.
Cocoa bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical
playing field. The next upside price breakout objective for
the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at the October high of $2,526. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the October low of $2,338. First resistance is seen at
$2,400 and then at $2,425. First support is seen at this
week’s low of $2,343 and then at $2,338. Wyckoff’s Market
Rating: 5.0
December cotton closed down 180 points at 70.81 cents
today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a
fresh two-week low. The key “outside markets” were bullish
for cotton today as the U.S. dollar index was lower and
crude oil prices were firmer. Yet, cotton sold off anyway,
which is another bearish clue. Bears have the near-term
technical advantage. Price action today saw a downside
“breakout” from a bearish pennant pattern that had formed
on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at 73.50 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at the
October low of 70.22 cents. First resistance is seen at
72.00 cents and then at today’s high of 73.13 cents. First
support is seen at 70.22 cents and then at 69.50 cents.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.5
January orange juice closed down 90 points at $1.0725
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit
another fresh 2.5-month low. Bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above technical resistance at $1.1500. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at the August low of $1.0505. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $1.0930 and then at $1.1000. First support
is seen at today’s low of $1.0700 and then at $1.0600.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 2.0.
January lumber futures closed down $1.00 at $321.20 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high. Bulls still have the
solid near-term technical advantage. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$307.60. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the August high of $330.00. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $322.80 and then at last week’s
contract high of $325.70. First support is seen at $320.00
and then at today’s low of $318.00. Wyckoff’s Market
Rating: 8.0
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