The S&P 500 Composite fell 30.45 points or 2.53% on Friday, September 2, 2011. SPX, fell below the previous 4 days’ lows and remains long-term bearish, below falling 50- and 200-day SMAs. SPX is down 13.91% over the past 4 months since its peak of 1,363.61 set on 4/29/11. On Wednesday night, I wrote, “After [...]

The S&P 500 Composite rose 17.53 points or 1.51% on Friday, August 26, 2011, making back nearly all it lost on Thursday. SPX remains below its popular 20-, 50-, and 200-day SMAs , however, so trends are still bearish in different time frames, short, medium, and long term. NYSE volume fell 12%, casting doubt on [...]

Tuesdays are tricksy.  Markets have a tendency to move counter-trend on Tuesdays creating the impression of a trend change or reversal. In general we try not to get overly excited about anything that happens on a Tuesday although we are quite sure that eventually we will pay for this particular piece of skepticism. Anyway… we [...]

The problem with the Fed’s statement that it is going to hold interest rates at extraordinarily low levels into 2013 is that it effectively pulls 2-year Treasury yields down towards 0%. Let’s take a quick look at the relationship between 2-year T-Note futures prices and the S&P 500 Index. Below we show the comparison from [...]

The S&P 500 Composite fell 7.59 points or 0.56% on Monday, July 25, 2011. SPX broke below the low of the previous trading day, following 4 consecutive higher lows. Sensitive momentum indicators are showing bearish divergences. As of the close on July 21, 2011, the Dow Theory suggested a divergence and non-confirmation as the Dow-Jones [...]