TEN Exclusive: USDJPY – Broader Bias Lower Within Falling Channel
Wednesday, March 3rd, 2010
USDJPY– We continue to retain our bearish bias on the pair as we look for it to eventually break and hold below the 88.54 level, its Feb 04’10 low which was tested in early trading today. This view remains valid while USDJPY trades within its established long term falling long term channel currently at 90.99 and the 89.69 level, its Feb 16’10 low. On a break below the 88.54 level, focus will turn towards the 88.30 level, its Dec 14’09 low and then the 87.35 level, its Dec 09’09 low. However, to reverse its current downside threats, a close back above its falling channel and the 92.13 level, its Feb 19’10 high must be established thus paving the way for further upside towards its Jan 11’10 at 92.65 and then the 93.74 level, its 2010 high with a loss of there targeting its Aug 02’09 high at 97.77. We retain our downside bias while the pair continues to hold within its long term falling channel. On the whole, having lost momentum at the 92.13 level and continuing to face downside pressure, further threats remain towards the 88.54/30 levels.
Support      Comment
88.54           Feb 04’10 low
88.30           Dec 14’09 low
87.35           Dec 09’09 low
Resistance  Comment
89.69           Feb 16’10 low
91.27/32    Feb 03’10 high/channel top
92.13           Feb 19’10 high
Directional Bias
Nearer Term – Bearish
Short Term – Mixed
Medium Term – Bearish
Performance (%)
Past Week: -3.02%
Past Month: +7.84%
Year To Date: -4.50%
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