The Morning Trading Blog – 02/09/10
Tuesday, February 9th, 2010Tuesday, February 9, 2010
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OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher U.S. stock index futures prices and a weaker U.S. dollar index.
JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
This week’s rebound in most of the commodity futures markets is so far just a corrective bounce in existing downtrends on the daily charts. One early clue that a market bottom is close at hand or in place in a commodity market would be if that market posted a weekly high close, or very close to it.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are higher in early morning trading today, on short-covering bounces following recent strong selling pressure. Near-term chart damage has been inflicted in the stock indexes, and near-term price downtrends are in place.
S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,054.50 and then at last week’s low of 1,041.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,066.90 and then at 1,075.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,064.00.
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Monday’s high of 1,755.00 and then at 1,765.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 1,740.00 and then at Monday’s low of 1,731.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,740.00
Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 9,900 and then more stops just below support at Monday’s low of 9,870. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of 9,985 and then at 10,000. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day
moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 9,975
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are slightly lower in early trading today, on a pullback from solid gains posted late last week. The bulls did gain some fresh technical momentum late last week, but need to show more power very soon to keep it.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 118 20/32 and then at 118 10/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 119 even and then at the overnight high of 119 11/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118 21/32
MARCH U.S. T-Bonds
136 23/32–lifetime high
119 18/32–second pivot point resistance
119 10/32–first pivot point resistance
119 9/32–previous day’s high
119 6/32–Previous Month’s high
119 3/32–previous day’s close
119 2/32–pivot point
118 26/32–first pivot point support
118 25/32–previous day’s low
118 22/32–4-day moving average
118 20/32–100-day moving average
118 18/32–second pivot point support
118 16/32–9-day moving average
118 3/32–18-day moving average
114 22/32–previous month’s low
110 3/32–lifetime low
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 118.23.5 and then at last week’s high of 118.30.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 118.11.0 and then at 118.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118.11.0
MARCH U.S. T-Notes
123 13/32–lifetime high
118 29/32–second pivot point resistance
118 24/32–previous day’s high
118 23/32–first pivot point resistance
118 19/32–pivot point
118 18/32–previous day’s close
118 14/32–previous day’s low
118 13/32–first pivot point support
118 10/32–4-day moving average
118 9/32–previous month’s high
118 9/32–second pivot point support
118 2/32–9-day moving average
117 23/32–18-day moving average
117 9/32–100-day moving average
114 31/32–previous month’s low
110 29/32–lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today, on profit-taking pressure from recent gains. No chart damage has occurred this week. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.53 and then at Monday’s high of 80.66. Shorter-term support is seen at 80.00 and then at 79.76. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.08. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The March Euro is higher in early electronic trading, on short covering. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3700 and then at the overnight low of 1.3648. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.3800 and then at 1.3850. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3758. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is higher in early dealings today, on more short-covering from recent heavy losses. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $1,085.00 and then at 1,090.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $1,070.00 and then at the overnight low of $1,062.10. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,075.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today, on short covering following strong losses late last week that produced serious near-term chart damage. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $73.00 and then just above resistance at $73.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $72.00 and then at the overnight low of $71.32. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $72.74. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading, on more short covering from recent selling pressure. Grain market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The key “outside markets” are in a bullish posture for the grains today, as the U.S. dollar index is weaker, while crude oil prices and U.S. stock indexes are higher. The U.S. government is closed today, but this morning’s USDA supply and demand report is still scheduled for release. This report is not expected to contain much market-moving data.
