The Morning Trading Blog – 12/04/09
Friday, December 4th, 2009Friday, December 4, 2009
Read more at TraderPlanet.com
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is lower gold and crude oil prices.
JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Look for an active trading day in the markets today, following the important monthly U.S. employment report, out this morning. Remember that it’s technically significant when a market on a Friday closes at its weekly high or weekly low. –Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are slightly firmer in early morning trading today. While new for-the-move highs were scored this week, the up-trends in the stock indexes have turned more sideways and could be in danger of rolling over.
S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,096.20 and then at this week’s low of 1,084.70. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,110.00 and then at Thursday’s high of 1,116.80. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,094.50.
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,777.00 and then at 1,765.75. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,790.00 and then at 1,800.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,781.00
Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Thursday’s low of 10,337 and then more stops just below support at 10,300. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 10,400 and then at 10,450. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,386
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are near steady in early trading today. Bulls are fading and need to show fresh power soon.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 120 even and then at Thursday’s low of 119 26/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 120 12/32 and then at 121 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 120 16/32
MARCH U.S. T-Bonds
136 23/32–lifetime high
123 –Previous Month’s high
122 1/32–second pivot point resistance
121 14/32–4-day moving average
121 12/32–previous day’s high
121 9/32–9-day moving average
121 3/32–first pivot point resistance
120 15/32–pivot point
120 6/32–previous day’s close
120 4/32–18-day moving average
119 26/32–previous day’s low
119 17/32–first pivot point support
118 29/32–second pivot point support
118 8/32–100-day moving average
116 16/32–previous month’s low
110 3/32–lifetime low
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 118.29.5 and then at 119.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 118.22.0 and then at this week’s low of 118.14.5. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118.10.0
MARCH U.S. T-Notes
123 13/32–lifetime high
120 15/32–previous month’s high
119 17/32–second pivot point resistance
119 11/32–4-day moving average
119 6/32–previous day’s high
119 5/32–first pivot point resistance
119 3/32–9-day moving average
118 25/32–pivot point
118 24/32–previous day’s close
118 14/32–previous day’s low
118 14/32–18-day moving average
118 13/32–first pivot point support
118 1/32–second pivot point support
116 9/32–100-day moving average
116 5/32–previous month’s low
110 29/32–lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is near steady in early trading today. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 75.19 and then at this week’s high of 75.46. Shorter-term support is seen at 74.75 and then at the contract low of 74.54. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 75.30. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
The March Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.5041 and then at 1.5000. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.5100 and then at this week’s high of 1.5137. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5013. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
GOLD
Gold is lower in early dealings today, on profit-taking pressure. For February gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,213.90 and then at 1,220.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $1,200.00 and then at $1,196.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,194.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are weaker early today. Bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. In January crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $76.34 and then just above resistance at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $75.57 and then more sell stops just below support at $75.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $74.91. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were firmer in overnight trading. The key outside markets are in neutral posture early today: a steady U.S. dollar, slightly firmer U.S. stock indexes and weaker crude oil prices. Grain market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the corn and wheat bulls need to show fresh power soon to keep it.
